SATURDAY 11th MAY (PM)
This afternoon will see showers across the south-east of England beginning to ease off and move over to mainland Europe. Whilst these showers are moving out of the United Kingdom, showers across north-east England will begin to merge and intensify. This area of rainfall will then move south down the eastern coastline, spreading into parts of the Midlands. The heaviest rainfall will be 6 mm per hour, which is far lighter than we have seen over the past few days. Then into the late evening, the area of rain will split and ease off once again, continuing to move south whilst doing so.
Precipitation over 100m in Scotland will see a wintry mix, and 150m+ will see just snow falling.
Temperatures throughout the afternoon are set to rise in double figures for the majority of the UK, with a peak of 15°C being seen across the south of England. Parts of north Wales, NE England and Scotland will see temperatures ranging from 6-9°C. Through the evening these double figures will fade into low single figures, with the London area seeing 12°C at 00:00, taking the warmest temperature at that time by 5°. The lowest temperature will be -1°C across north-west Scotland, whilst parts of Wales, Midlands and Southern England fall to 0-2°C. These low temperatures do mean that a frost is on the cards.
The highest wind gusts which will be seen today will be over the next two and three hours hitting 27 mph. Throughout the evening the wind gusts will reduce throughout, bringing a very calm night ahead, with the average wind gust being 5 mph, with peaks of 13 mph.
There is a risk of funnel clouds forming, due to how the winds are flowing across the UK. Attached below is the the wind gust chart with direction showing the flow, and why there is a risk of storms from forming.
SUNDAY 12TH MAY (AM)
Any rainfall across southern and eastern areas will dissipate, this will leave some cloud behind, helping to hold the temperature in for a time. North-east England will see showers developing into the late morning, but these will be light. Scotland and Northern Ireland will see some light showers, these will be short lived showers.
Once again areas 150m+ across Scotland will see wintry showers coming into action once again, with 100m seeing sleety showers, whilst areas at sea level will see mostly rainfall, with the odd flake here and there.
Temperatures are forecast to rise to highs of 15°C by 12:00 across southern Wales, Northern Ireland and large parts of England. This is after a freezing start to the day, which can be seen below.
A very calm morning, with wind gusts falling even lower than those of Saturday evening. The average wind gust will be 4 mph, with a peak gust of 8 mph in Northern Ireland. The wind directions will be all over the place, as the center of the high pressure system, sits over the center of the UK.
The jet stream will be moving north across the UK, throughout the morning, but this will have very little impact across ground level, but this will begin to allow warmer air move in from the south, whilst the jet stream blocks of the cold stream we have seen up until this point.
SUNDAY 12TH MAY (PM)
Through the afternoon north-east England will see some moderate showers develop peaking at 7 mm per hour, with Scotland’s east coast also seeing some showers, but these will be light. The rest of England, Wales and Northern Ireland will remain dry, with a low risk of rainfall throughout the second half of the day.
Mid-teens will be seen across the Midlands, Wales, Southern England and Northern Ireland, the peak temperatures on the charts suggest 16°C Bristol, but this could hit 18°C, in the clear spells which are possible during the day. Heading into the late evening, the temperatures will still be largely above 5°C, even across higher levels of Scotland.
A largely calm afternoon and evening, there is some small increases which will be seen, as the center of the high pressure system moves east over the North Sea, bringing the tighter isobars over the UK. This will push the wind speeds up towards 20 mph, with the average now being 12 mph, with even higher wind speeds only a few miles out into the Atlantic, which could affect Northern Ireland into the early morning on Monday.
The jet stream will have cleared the UK, leaving a large area for warm air to flow into, but heading into Monday this jet stream will begin to move back of Scotland and Northern Ireland. This will allow warm air to hit England and Wales, whilst a mix of warm and cold air will hit Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing more unsettled conditions and an increased risk of thunderstorms, where the air masses to meet.